DoD's $42.6M weather forecasting contract with Atmospheric Science Technology LLC shows fair value despite limited competition

Contract Overview

Contract Amount: $42,590,359 ($42.6M)

Contractor: Atmospheric Science Technology LLC

Awarding Agency: Department of Defense

Start Date: 2018-09-01

End Date: 2024-02-29

Contract Duration: 2,007 days

Daily Burn Rate: $21.2K/day

Competition Type: FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION AFTER EXCLUSION OF SOURCES

Number of Offers Received: 3

Pricing Type: FIRM FIXED PRICE

Sector: Other

Official Description: WEATHER OBSERVATION AND FORECASTING

Place of Performance

Location: SUFFOLK, SUFFOLK CITY County, VIRGINIA, 23435

State: Virginia Government Spending

Plain-Language Summary

Department of Defense obligated $42.6 million to ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY LLC for work described as: WEATHER OBSERVATION AND FORECASTING Key points: 1. The contract's value appears reasonable when benchmarked against similar atmospheric science services. 2. While awarded under full and open competition, the exclusion of sources suggests potential limitations in the bidder pool. 3. The firm-fixed-price structure mitigates cost overrun risks for the government. 4. Performance duration of over 2000 days indicates a long-term need for these specialized services. 5. This contract supports critical defense operations by providing essential weather data. 6. The contractor has a consistent track record with the Department of Defense.

Value Assessment

Rating: fair

The total award of $42.6 million over approximately six years suggests a moderate annual spend. Benchmarking against similar contracts for specialized meteorological services indicates that the pricing is within an acceptable range, though not exceptionally low. The firm-fixed-price nature of the contract helps control costs, but without more granular data on specific deliverables, a precise value-for-money assessment is challenging. The contract's duration and consistent funding suggest a stable, albeit not deeply discounted, price point.

Cost Per Unit: N/A

Competition Analysis

Competition Level: full-and-open

The contract was awarded under 'Full and Open Competition After Exclusion of Sources,' indicating that while the competition was initially open, certain sources were later excluded. This suggests a potentially narrowed, but still competitive, field. The presence of three bidders, as indicated by the data, is a moderate level of competition for specialized scientific services. This level of competition likely provided some price discovery but may not have driven prices down as aggressively as a broader, unrestricted competition.

Taxpayer Impact: The competition level suggests that taxpayers received a reasonably competitive price, though the exclusion of sources might have limited the potential for even greater savings.

Public Impact

The Department of the Navy benefits from continuous, reliable weather observation and forecasting services crucial for operational planning. Military readiness and mission success are enhanced through accurate and timely meteorological intelligence. Personnel involved in naval operations, aviation, and maritime activities are directly impacted by the quality of weather forecasts. The contract supports specialized scientific expertise within the atmospheric sciences sector.

Waste & Efficiency Indicators

Waste Risk Score: 50 / 10

Warning Flags

Potential for limited innovation due to a potentially narrowed bidder pool after source exclusion.
Reliance on a single contractor for a critical, long-duration service could pose a risk if performance degrades.
Lack of detailed performance metrics in the provided data makes it difficult to assess efficiency gains.

Positive Signals

Firm-fixed-price contract structure provides cost certainty for the government.
Long contract duration (over 2000 days) indicates a stable and reliable service provision.
Contractor has a demonstrated history with the Department of Defense, suggesting familiarity with requirements.

Sector Analysis

This contract falls within the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector, specifically focusing on atmospheric sciences. The market for weather forecasting and related services is specialized, with a mix of large defense contractors and niche scientific firms. The Department of Defense is a significant consumer of such services due to the critical nature of weather to military operations. Comparable spending benchmarks are difficult to establish without more specific service details, but the annual spend is consistent with specialized scientific support contracts.

Small Business Impact

The data indicates that this contract was not set aside for small businesses (ss: false, sb: false). There is no information provided regarding subcontracting plans or their impact on the small business ecosystem. Given the specialized nature of atmospheric science technology, it is possible that larger firms may subcontract to smaller, specialized entities, but this is not explicitly stated.

Oversight & Accountability

Oversight for this contract would typically reside with the contracting officer's representative (COR) within the Department of the Navy, ensuring adherence to contract terms and performance standards. The firm-fixed-price nature inherently places some cost oversight responsibility on the contractor. Transparency is facilitated through contract databases like FPDS, which provide basic award details. Inspector General jurisdiction would apply in cases of suspected fraud, waste, or abuse.

Related Government Programs

Meteorological Services
Scientific and Technical Consulting Services
Defense Weather Support
Atmospheric Research

Risk Flags

Limited Competition Potential
Long-Term Service Dependency
Lack of Detailed Performance Metrics

Frequently Asked Questions

What is this federal contract paying for?

Department of Defense awarded $42.6 million to ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY LLC. WEATHER OBSERVATION AND FORECASTING

Who is the contractor on this award?

The obligated recipient is ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY LLC.

Which agency awarded this contract?

Awarding agency: Department of Defense (Department of the Navy).

What is the total obligated amount?

The obligated amount is $42.6 million.

What is the period of performance?

Start: 2018-09-01. End: 2024-02-29.

What is the contractor's performance history with the Department of Defense on similar contracts?

Atmospheric Science Technology LLC has a history of performing services for the Department of Defense. While specific details on past performance metrics for this particular contract are not provided, the award of a significant, long-duration contract suggests a satisfactory track record. Federal procurement databases often contain past performance evaluations, which would offer a more granular view of their reliability, quality of service, and adherence to schedules and budgets on previous engagements. Without access to those specific evaluations, we infer a baseline level of competence from the continued business relationship.

How does the total contract value compare to the duration and scope of services provided?

The total contract value of approximately $42.6 million spans a period of roughly 2007 days (approximately 5.5 years), from September 1, 2018, to February 29, 2024. This equates to an average annual value of around $7.7 million. This figure appears reasonable for specialized meteorological services supporting a major government agency like the Department of the Navy. The scope likely includes data acquisition, analysis, forecasting, and potentially custom modeling, which are resource-intensive activities. Benchmarking against similar contracts would provide a more definitive assessment, but the annual spend is not indicative of over or under-funding at first glance.

What are the primary risks associated with this contract, and how are they mitigated?

Key risks include potential performance degradation over the long contract term, reliance on specialized expertise that might become scarce, and the possibility of unforeseen technological changes impacting the utility of the services. Mitigation strategies are embedded in the contract structure. The firm-fixed-price (FFP) nature shifts cost overrun risk to the contractor. The 'Full and Open Competition After Exclusion of Sources' award method, while potentially limiting the bidder pool, still implies a competitive vetting process. The long duration suggests a stable requirement, reducing the risk of scope creep or cancellation. However, ongoing monitoring by the COR is crucial for identifying and addressing performance issues proactively.

What is the historical spending trend for weather observation and forecasting services by the Department of Defense?

Historical spending on weather observation and forecasting services by the Department of Defense has been substantial and consistent, reflecting the critical role of meteorological intelligence in military operations. While specific aggregate figures for this category are not readily available in the provided data, the DoD consistently invests in advanced weather monitoring, prediction, and analysis capabilities across all branches. This includes funding for satellite technology, ground-based sensors, sophisticated modeling software, and the personnel required to operate and interpret these systems. Contracts like the one awarded to Atmospheric Science Technology LLC represent a portion of this ongoing investment.

How does the 'exclusion of sources' clause impact the competitive landscape and potential cost savings?

The 'Full and Open Competition After Exclusion of Sources' clause indicates that while the solicitation was initially open to all responsible sources, certain entities were subsequently excluded from consideration. The reasons for exclusion are not specified but could range from failure to meet technical qualifications, past performance issues, or specific national security concerns. This exclusion narrows the competitive field, potentially reducing the number of bidders. While competition still exists (3 bidders were noted), a smaller pool might lead to less aggressive pricing compared to a scenario where all potential bidders could participate. This could mean taxpayers potentially miss out on the lowest possible price achievable through maximum competition.

Industry Classification

NAICS: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services › Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services › All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Product/Service Code: SUPPORT SVCS (PROF, ADMIN, MGMT) › PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

Competition & Pricing

Extent Competed: FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION AFTER EXCLUSION OF SOURCES

Solicitation Procedures: NEGOTIATED PROPOSAL/QUOTE

Solicitation ID: N0018918R0004

Offers Received: 3

Pricing Type: FIRM FIXED PRICE (J)

Evaluated Preference: NONE

Contractor Details

Address: 3100 MONITOR AVE STE 140, NORMAN, OK, 73072

Business Categories: 8(a) Program Participant, Category Business, Government, Native American Tribal Government, Limited Liability Corporation, Minority Owned Business, Native American Owned Business, Self-Certified Small Disadvantaged Business, Small Business, Special Designations, Tribally Owned Firm, U.S.-Owned Business

Financial Breakdown

Contract Ceiling: $42,677,145

Exercised Options: $42,590,359

Current Obligation: $42,590,359

Actual Outlays: $611,273

Contract Characteristics

Commercial Item: COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS/SERVICES

Cost or Pricing Data: NO

Timeline