State Department awards $2.8M contract for passport demand forecasting to KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC

Contract Overview

Contract Amount: $2,788,867 ($2.8M)

Contractor: Koniag Advisory and Business Solutions, LLC

Awarding Agency: Department of State

Start Date: 2025-09-25

End Date: 2026-09-29

Contract Duration: 369 days

Daily Burn Rate: $7.6K/day

Competition Type: NOT AVAILABLE FOR COMPETITION

Number of Offers Received: 1

Pricing Type: FIRM FIXED PRICE

Sector: Other

Official Description: TO ACCURATELY FORECAST PASSPORT DEMAND ON A MONTHLY BASIS FOR A PERIOD OF THREE YEARS IN ADVANCE.

Place of Performance

Location: ANCHORAGE, ANCHORAGE County, ALASKA, 99503

State: Alaska Government Spending

Plain-Language Summary

Department of State obligated $2.8 million to KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC for work described as: TO ACCURATELY FORECAST PASSPORT DEMAND ON A MONTHLY BASIS FOR A PERIOD OF THREE YEARS IN ADVANCE. Key points: 1. Contract aims to improve accuracy in predicting passport demand over a three-year period. 2. Focus on administrative management and general management consulting services. 3. Contract duration of 369 days. 4. Firm Fixed Price contract type suggests predictable costs for the government. 5. Awarded by the Department of State, indicating a need for specialized forecasting capabilities. 6. The contract is not competitively procured, raising questions about potential value for money. 7. Geographic impact is limited to the services provided, not a broad public-facing initiative.

Value Assessment

Rating: fair

The contract value of $2.8 million for a three-year forecasting project appears reasonable given the specialized nature of the services. Benchmarking against similar government contracts for management consulting and data analytics services would provide a clearer picture of value for money. Without more specific details on the scope of work and deliverables, it is difficult to definitively assess if the pricing is competitive or if it represents an optimal use of taxpayer funds. The firm fixed price structure, however, offers cost certainty.

Cost Per Unit: N/A

Competition Analysis

Competition Level: sole-source

This contract was not competed, indicating a sole-source award. The justification for this approach is not provided in the available data. Sole-source awards can sometimes lead to higher prices and reduced innovation compared to competitively awarded contracts, as there is less pressure on the contractor to offer the most cost-effective solution. The lack of competition means that the government did not explore alternative providers or solutions that might have offered better value.

Taxpayer Impact: The absence of competition for this contract means taxpayers may not be receiving the best possible price for these critical forecasting services. Without a competitive bidding process, there is a risk of overpayment.

Public Impact

The Department of State benefits from improved accuracy in forecasting passport demand, leading to better resource allocation and operational planning. Services delivered include advanced analytical and consulting support for demand prediction. The geographic impact is primarily internal to the Department of State's operations, rather than a direct public service delivery. Workforce implications are likely related to the contractor's personnel providing the analytical services.

Waste & Efficiency Indicators

Waste Risk Score: 50 / 10

Warning Flags

Lack of competition may lead to suboptimal pricing.
The specific methodology for demand forecasting is not detailed, raising questions about its robustness.
Reliance on a single contractor for critical forecasting could pose a risk if performance issues arise.

Positive Signals

The contract is for a critical function (demand forecasting) that can significantly improve operational efficiency.
Firm Fixed Price contract provides cost certainty for the government.
The contractor, KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC, is being engaged for specialized consulting services.

Sector Analysis

This contract falls within the professional, scientific, and technical services sector, specifically management consulting. The market for such services is broad, with numerous firms capable of providing data analysis and forecasting. The Department of State's need for specialized passport demand forecasting highlights a niche within this sector. Comparable spending benchmarks would typically involve analyzing other government contracts for similar analytical and forecasting services, particularly those focused on operational demand prediction.

Small Business Impact

The data indicates that this contract was not set aside for small businesses, nor does it explicitly mention subcontracting opportunities for small businesses. Given the sole-source nature of the award, it is unlikely that small businesses were specifically considered or targeted for this particular contract. Further investigation would be needed to determine if any subcontracting plans exist.

Oversight & Accountability

Oversight of this contract would primarily fall under the Department of State's contracting officers and program managers. Accountability measures would be defined in the contract's statement of work and performance standards. Transparency regarding the specific forecasting methodologies and outcomes would depend on the Department's internal reporting and any public disclosures made. Inspector General jurisdiction would apply if any fraud, waste, or abuse were suspected.

Related Government Programs

Department of State Passport Services
Government Management Consulting Services
Data Analytics and Forecasting Contracts
Federal Demand Planning Initiatives

Risk Flags

Sole-source award lacks competitive pricing pressure.
Potential for suboptimal value due to lack of competition.
Transparency concerns regarding the justification for sole-source award.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is this federal contract paying for?

Department of State awarded $2.8 million to KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC. TO ACCURATELY FORECAST PASSPORT DEMAND ON A MONTHLY BASIS FOR A PERIOD OF THREE YEARS IN ADVANCE.

Who is the contractor on this award?

The obligated recipient is KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC.

Which agency awarded this contract?

Awarding agency: Department of State (Department of State).

What is the total obligated amount?

The obligated amount is $2.8 million.

What is the period of performance?

Start: 2025-09-25. End: 2026-09-29.

What is the specific methodology KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC will use to forecast passport demand, and how does it differ from previous methods?

The provided data does not specify the exact methodology KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC will employ for passport demand forecasting. Typically, such forecasting involves a combination of historical data analysis, statistical modeling (e.g., time series analysis, regression models), consideration of external factors (e.g., economic conditions, travel trends, policy changes), and potentially machine learning techniques. The contract's statement of work would detail these requirements. Without this information, it's impossible to assess how it differs from previous methods or its potential effectiveness. A key aspect for evaluation would be the contractor's proposed approach to incorporating real-time data and adapting to unforeseen global events that impact travel.

How does the $2.8 million contract value compare to similar government contracts for demand forecasting or management consulting services?

Benchmarking the $2.8 million contract value requires comparing it against similar government procurements for demand forecasting and management consulting. The duration of the contract (369 days) and its specific focus on passport demand are key factors. Contracts for large-scale data analytics and predictive modeling for agencies like the Department of Homeland Security (for border crossings) or the Department of Transportation (for travel trends) could serve as comparators. However, the unique nature of passport demand, influenced by international travel regulations and global events, might justify a specific pricing structure. A comprehensive analysis would involve reviewing contract databases for similar scopes of work, contractor rates, and overall award values to determine if $2.8 million represents a fair market price for the anticipated services.

What are the potential risks associated with awarding this contract on a sole-source basis?

Awarding this contract on a sole-source basis presents several potential risks. Primarily, the absence of competition means the Department of State may not have secured the most cost-effective solution, potentially leading to higher prices than if multiple vendors had bid. This lack of competition can also stifle innovation, as the contractor faces less pressure to develop novel or highly efficient forecasting techniques. Furthermore, sole-source awards can raise concerns about fairness and transparency in the procurement process. If the chosen contractor underperforms, the government has limited immediate alternatives without initiating a new, potentially lengthy, sole-source justification or a full competitive procurement, delaying critical forecasting updates.

What performance metrics or deliverables are expected from KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC under this contract?

The provided data does not detail the specific performance metrics or deliverables expected from KONIAG ADVISORY AND BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, LLC. However, for a contract focused on demand forecasting, key deliverables would likely include regular (e.g., monthly) demand forecasts, detailed reports on the methodology used, analysis of factors influencing demand, and potentially recommendations for resource allocation based on these forecasts. Performance metrics would likely assess the accuracy of these forecasts against actual demand, the timeliness of delivery, and the clarity and utility of the reports provided. The contract's statement of work and any associated performance work statement would outline these expectations in detail.

What is the historical spending pattern of the Department of State on passport-related services or forecasting initiatives?

The provided data does not include historical spending patterns for the Department of State related to passport services or forecasting initiatives. To assess this, one would need to analyze past contract awards and budget allocations specifically for passport operations, demand analysis, and related consulting services. Understanding historical spending would provide context for the current $2.8 million award, helping to determine if it represents an increase, decrease, or consistent level of investment in forecasting capabilities. It would also reveal trends in contracting, such as the prevalence of sole-source versus competitive awards for similar needs.

Industry Classification

NAICS: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services › Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services › Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services

Product/Service Code: SUPPORT SVCS (PROF, ADMIN, MGMT) › PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

Competition & Pricing

Extent Competed: NOT AVAILABLE FOR COMPETITION

Solicitation Procedures: ONLY ONE SOURCE

Offers Received: 1

Pricing Type: FIRM FIXED PRICE (J)

Evaluated Preference: NONE

Contractor Details

Address: 3800 CENTERPOINT DR STE 700, ANCHORAGE, AK, 99503

Business Categories: 8(a) Program Participant, Alaskan Native Corporation Owned Firm, Category Business, Corporate Entity Not Tax Exempt, Minority Owned Business, Native American Owned Business, Self-Certified Small Disadvantaged Business, Small Business, Special Designations, U.S.-Owned Business

Financial Breakdown

Contract Ceiling: $2,788,867

Exercised Options: $2,788,867

Current Obligation: $2,788,867

Contract Characteristics

Commercial Item: COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS/SERVICES PROCEDURES NOT USED

Cost or Pricing Data: NO

Timeline