DoD's $15.6M Contract for Nuclear Survivability Modeling Faces Scrutiny Over Value and Competition

Contract Overview

Contract Amount: $15,627,840 ($15.6M)

Contractor: Applied Research Associates, Inc.

Awarding Agency: Department of Defense

Start Date: 2019-05-09

End Date: 2026-04-02

Contract Duration: 2,520 days

Daily Burn Rate: $6.2K/day

Competition Type: FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION

Number of Offers Received: 1

Pricing Type: COST PLUS FIXED FEE

Sector: R&D

Official Description: NUCLEAR DETONATION HUMAN SURVIVABILITY MODELING

Place of Performance

Location: ARLINGTON, ARLINGTON County, VIRGINIA, 22203

State: Virginia Government Spending

Plain-Language Summary

Department of Defense obligated $15.6 million to APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC. for work described as: NUCLEAR DETONATION HUMAN SURVIVABILITY MODELING Key points: 1. The contract's high cost for research and development raises questions about its value for money. 2. While awarded under full and open competition, the specific nature of the research may limit true competitive pressure. 3. Potential risks include the long duration and the complexity of modeling nuclear detonation impacts. 4. The sector is Defense R&D, a critical but often expensive area for government spending.

Value Assessment

Rating: questionable

The $15.6 million contract for nuclear survivability modeling is substantial. Benchmarking against similar complex R&D contracts is difficult without more detail, but the cost warrants careful review for efficiency and necessity.

Cost Per Unit: N/A

Competition Analysis

Competition Level: full-and-open

Awarded under full and open competition, this method aims for the best value. However, the specialized nature of nuclear detonation modeling might mean only a few firms possess the required expertise, potentially limiting the breadth of competition and price discovery.

Taxpayer Impact: Taxpayers are funding advanced research with potential national security benefits, but the significant cost requires assurance of effective use of funds.

Public Impact

Funding advanced research into nuclear detonation impacts, potentially informing national security strategies. The contract supports specialized scientific and engineering services within the defense sector. Long-term research project with implications for future defense planning and infrastructure resilience.

Waste & Efficiency Indicators

Waste Risk Score: 50 / 10

Warning Flags

High contract value for specialized R&D.
Long contract duration (over 6 years).
Potential for limited true competition due to niche expertise required.

Positive Signals

Awarded under full and open competition.
Addresses a critical national security research area.

Sector Analysis

This contract falls within the Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences sector. Spending in this area is crucial for technological advancement but can be prone to high costs and long development cycles, making rigorous oversight essential.

Small Business Impact

The contract data does not indicate any specific provisions or set-asides for small businesses. Given the specialized nature of the research, it is likely that larger, established research firms were the primary bidders.

Oversight & Accountability

The Department of Defense, specifically the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, is responsible for overseeing this contract. Standard oversight mechanisms for R&D contracts, including milestone reviews and performance evaluations, should be in place to ensure accountability.

Related Government Programs

Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology)
Department of Defense Contracting
Defense Threat Reduction Agency Programs

Risk Flags

High contract value.
Long contract duration.
Specialized R&D area.
Potential for limited true competition.
Cost Plus Fixed Fee contract type.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is this federal contract paying for?

Department of Defense awarded $15.6 million to APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC.. NUCLEAR DETONATION HUMAN SURVIVABILITY MODELING

Who is the contractor on this award?

The obligated recipient is APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC..

Which agency awarded this contract?

Awarding agency: Department of Defense (Defense Threat Reduction Agency).

What is the total obligated amount?

The obligated amount is $15.6 million.

What is the period of performance?

Start: 2019-05-09. End: 2026-04-02.

How effectively does this modeling contribute to actual survivability improvements or policy decisions, beyond theoretical research?

The effectiveness hinges on the model's accuracy, validation against real-world data (where possible), and its integration into actionable defense strategies. Without clear metrics for translating model outputs into tangible improvements or informing specific policy changes, its practical value remains theoretical. The long duration suggests an ongoing need, but continuous assessment of its relevance to evolving threats is crucial.

What are the primary risks associated with the 'COST PLUS FIXED FEE' contract type for this complex R&D project?

Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF) contracts can incentivize contractors to control costs to maximize their fixed fee. However, for complex R&D, defining the scope and estimating costs accurately upfront is challenging. Risks include potential cost overruns if unforeseen technical hurdles arise, and the government bearing the brunt of these increases while the contractor's fee remains fixed, potentially leading to less incentive for innovation if costs escalate significantly.

Beyond the initial competition, how is the ongoing value and necessity of this long-term research project assessed?

Ongoing value assessment typically involves periodic technical reviews, performance metrics tied to research milestones, and alignment with evolving defense requirements. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency should have processes to ensure the research remains relevant and is progressing towards meaningful outcomes. Regular re-evaluation of the project's objectives and potential return on investment is critical, especially given the extended timeline and substantial funding.

Industry Classification

NAICS: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services › Scientific Research and Development Services › Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology)

Product/Service Code: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT › DEFENSE (OTHER) R&D

Competition & Pricing

Extent Competed: FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION

Solicitation Procedures: SUBJECT TO MULTIPLE AWARD FAIR OPPORTUNITY

Solicitation ID: HDTRA112R0016

Offers Received: 1

Pricing Type: COST PLUS FIXED FEE (U)

Evaluated Preference: NONE

Contractor Details

Address: 4300 SAN MATEO BLVD NE STE A220, ALBUQUERQUE, NM, 87110

Business Categories: Category Business, Corporate Entity Not Tax Exempt, Not Designated a Small Business, Special Designations, U.S.-Owned Business

Financial Breakdown

Contract Ceiling: $23,758,787

Exercised Options: $20,849,440

Current Obligation: $15,627,840

Actual Outlays: $2,568,367

Subaward Activity

Number of Subawards: 2

Total Subaward Amount: $1,255,130

Contract Characteristics

Commercial Item: COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS/SERVICES PROCEDURES NOT USED

Cost or Pricing Data: NO

Parent Contract

Parent Award PIID: HDTRA114D0003

IDV Type: IDC

Timeline