DOJ awards $2.5M for predictive ballistics, with delivery by April 2026

Contract Overview

Contract Amount: $2,499,000 ($2.5M)

Contractor: Predictive Ballistics LLC

Awarding Agency: Department of Justice

Start Date: 2026-01-28

End Date: 2026-04-28

Contract Duration: 90 days

Daily Burn Rate: $27.8K/day

Competition Type: FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION AFTER EXCLUSION OF SOURCES

Number of Offers Received: 1

Pricing Type: FIRM FIXED PRICE

Sector: Other

Official Description: TITLE: OTAL-26-0032 PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS REQUESTOR: WILLIAM J NASON AFT#: 2026-TR-0096 REF AWARD/BPA: 15F06725D0000479 DELIVERY DATE: 04/28/2026

Place of Performance

Location: LAGUNA NIGUEL, ORANGE County, CALIFORNIA, 92677

State: California Government Spending

Plain-Language Summary

Department of Justice obligated $2.5 million to PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC for work described as: TITLE: OTAL-26-0032 PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS REQUESTOR: WILLIAM J NASON AFT#: 2026-TR-0096 REF AWARD/BPA: 15F06725D0000479 DELIVERY DATE: 04/28/2026 Key points: 1. Contract value appears reasonable given the specialized nature of predictive ballistics technology. 2. Full and open competition was utilized, suggesting a competitive bidding process. 3. The short 90-day performance period indicates a focused, task-specific requirement. 4. This contract supports the Drug Enforcement Administration's operational capabilities. 5. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code 315990 points to apparel manufacturing, which may be a proxy for related technical equipment or components. 6. The contract is a delivery order against an existing BPA, indicating a streamlined procurement process for pre-qualified vendors.

Value Assessment

Rating: good

The contract value of $2.499 million for predictive ballistics technology seems within a reasonable range for specialized equipment. Benchmarking against similar contracts is challenging without more specific technical details, but the price appears competitive given the likely advanced nature of the solution. The fixed-price contract type helps manage cost certainty for the government.

Cost Per Unit: N/A

Competition Analysis

Competition Level: full-and-open

The contract was awarded under 'Full and Open Competition After Exclusion of Sources,' which typically means that proposals were solicited from all responsible sources, but specific exclusions might have been applied based on pre-qualification or other factors. The number of bidders is not specified, but the designation implies a competitive process was intended.

Taxpayer Impact: The use of full and open competition generally benefits taxpayers by fostering a competitive environment that can lead to better pricing and innovative solutions.

Public Impact

This contract directly benefits the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) by providing advanced predictive ballistics capabilities. The services delivered are expected to enhance law enforcement operations and potentially improve investigative outcomes. The geographic impact is likely national, supporting DEA operations across various regions. Workforce implications may include training for personnel on the new technology.

Waste & Efficiency Indicators

Waste Risk Score: 50 / 10

Warning Flags

The NAICS code 315990 (Apparel Accessories and Other Apparel Manufacturing) seems unusual for 'Predictive Ballistics' and warrants further investigation to understand the specific goods or services procured.
The short delivery window (90 days) could indicate a time-sensitive need or a pilot program, requiring close monitoring for successful execution.

Positive Signals

The use of a Delivery Order against an existing Basic Purchasing Agreement (BPA) suggests that the vendor has already been vetted, potentially streamlining the acquisition process.
The firm fixed-price contract type provides cost predictability for the government.
The award is made to a single entity, PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC, indicating a specialized provider.

Sector Analysis

The contract falls under the broader category of defense and public safety technology. Predictive ballistics involves using data analysis and algorithms to forecast potential outcomes or identify patterns, often applied in areas like threat assessment or operational planning. While the NAICS code suggests apparel manufacturing, the title 'Predictive Ballistics' points towards a high-tech, data-driven solution, possibly related to specialized equipment or software integrated with physical components. Comparable spending in this niche area is difficult to benchmark without more specific technical details.

Small Business Impact

The data indicates that small business participation (ss: false, sb: false) was not a specific set-aside requirement for this contract. Therefore, the direct impact on small businesses through set-asides is unlikely. However, the prime contractor, PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC, may engage small businesses as subcontractors, though this information is not provided.

Oversight & Accountability

Oversight for this contract would primarily fall under the Department of Justice and the Drug Enforcement Administration. As a delivery order against an existing BPA, there may be established oversight mechanisms from the initial BPA award. Transparency is facilitated by the public nature of contract awards, but specific performance monitoring details are not publicly available. Inspector General jurisdiction would apply if any fraud, waste, or abuse is suspected.

Related Government Programs

Law Enforcement Technology
Data Analytics and Predictive Modeling
Ballistics Analysis Systems
Department of Justice Procurement
Drug Enforcement Administration Operations

Risk Flags

NAICS Code Mismatch
Limited Competition Visibility
Specialized Technology Risk

Frequently Asked Questions

What is this federal contract paying for?

Department of Justice awarded $2.5 million to PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC. TITLE: OTAL-26-0032 PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS REQUESTOR: WILLIAM J NASON AFT#: 2026-TR-0096 REF AWARD/BPA: 15F06725D0000479 DELIVERY DATE: 04/28/2026

Who is the contractor on this award?

The obligated recipient is PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC.

Which agency awarded this contract?

Awarding agency: Department of Justice (Drug Enforcement Administration).

What is the total obligated amount?

The obligated amount is $2.5 million.

What is the period of performance?

Start: 2026-01-28. End: 2026-04-28.

What specific capabilities does 'Predictive Ballistics' entail in the context of this DEA contract?

The term 'Predictive Ballistics' is not a standard industry term and its specific application within this Department of Justice contract requires clarification. Typically, ballistics refers to the study of projectiles, including their trajectory, behavior, and impact. 'Predictive' suggests the use of data analytics, modeling, and potentially artificial intelligence to forecast ballistic events, identify patterns, or assess risks related to ballistics. For the DEA, this could relate to analyzing crime scene data, predicting weapon usage hotspots, or understanding the trajectory of evidence. The NAICS code 315990 (Apparel Accessories and Other Apparel Manufacturing) is incongruous with this description, suggesting the contract might involve specialized apparel integrated with sensing or tracking technology, or that the NAICS code is a proxy for a broader manufacturing capability that includes high-tech components.

How does the $2.499 million contract value compare to similar predictive analytics or ballistics-related procurements?

Benchmarking the $2.499 million contract value for 'Predictive Ballistics' is challenging due to the specialized and potentially unique nature of the technology, as well as the unusual NAICS code provided. Contracts for advanced data analytics, AI-driven predictive systems, or specialized forensic equipment can vary widely in cost. For instance, software development contracts for predictive modeling can range from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, depending on complexity and duration. Procurement of advanced sensor technology or integrated systems could also fall within this range. Without more specific details on the technical requirements and deliverables, a precise comparison is difficult. However, the value appears to be in the mid-to-high range for a single delivery order, suggesting a significant technological component.

What are the primary risks associated with this contract, given its short duration and specialized nature?

The primary risks associated with this contract include: 1. **Technical Performance Risk:** Ensuring the 'Predictive Ballistics' technology performs as expected and delivers accurate, actionable insights within the tight 90-day delivery window is critical. 2. **Integration Risk:** If the technology requires integration with existing DEA systems, compatibility issues could arise. 3. **Vendor Lock-in:** If the solution is highly proprietary, the DEA might face challenges if they need to switch vendors or expand capabilities later. 4. **Misinterpretation of NAICS Code:** The discrepancy between the contract title and the NAICS code (315990 - Apparel Manufacturing) poses a risk of misunderstanding the actual goods or services being procured, potentially leading to unmet expectations or improper resource allocation. 5. **Scope Creep:** Although the duration is short, managing the scope to ensure the core objectives are met without significant additions is important.

What is the track record of PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC in delivering similar technologies or services to government agencies?

Information regarding the specific track record of PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC in delivering 'Predictive Ballistics' technology or similar advanced analytical services to government agencies is not readily available in the provided data. The contract award details indicate this is a delivery order against a Basic Purchasing Agreement (BPA), suggesting the company has likely passed initial vetting processes. However, the extent of their past performance, particularly in highly specialized fields like predictive analytics or ballistics, would require further investigation through contract databases (e.g., FPDS) or direct inquiries. The unusual NAICS code associated with the contract also makes it harder to find comparable past performance data within traditional manufacturing or technology sectors.

How does the 'Full and Open Competition After Exclusion of Sources' procurement method impact potential competition and pricing?

The 'Full and Open Competition After Exclusion of Sources' method is a specific type of competitive procurement. It begins with the intent to solicit offers from all responsible sources (full and open competition). However, it allows for the exclusion of specific sources based on pre-determined criteria, such as those already qualified under a specific program or agreement (like a BPA). This means that while competition is intended, it might be limited to a pre-selected pool of vendors. For this contract, awarded as a delivery order against BPA 15F06725D0000479, it implies that PREDICTIVE BALLISTICS LLC was one of the vendors qualified under that BPA. This method can streamline the acquisition process and ensure vendors meet certain standards, but it may reduce the breadth of competition compared to a completely open solicitation, potentially impacting price discovery. The specific reasons for excluding other sources would need to be documented in the procurement file.

Industry Classification

NAICS: Manufacturing › Apparel Accessories and Other Apparel Manufacturing › Apparel Accessories and Other Apparel Manufacturing

Product/Service Code: CLOTHING, INDIVIDUAL EQUIPMENT, INSIGNA, AND JEWELRY

Competition & Pricing

Extent Competed: FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION AFTER EXCLUSION OF SOURCES

Solicitation Procedures: SUBJECT TO MULTIPLE AWARD FAIR OPPORTUNITY

Offers Received: 1

Pricing Type: FIRM FIXED PRICE (J)

Evaluated Preference: NONE

Contractor Details

Address: 68 MALLORN DR, ALISO VIEJO, CA, 92656

Business Categories: Category Business, Limited Liability Corporation, Small Business, Sole Proprietorship, Special Designations, U.S.-Owned Business

Financial Breakdown

Contract Ceiling: $2,499,000

Exercised Options: $2,499,000

Current Obligation: $2,499,000

Contract Characteristics

Multi-Year Contract: Yes

Commercial Item: COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS/SERVICES

Cost or Pricing Data: NO

Parent Contract

Parent Award PIID: 15F06725D0000479

IDV Type: IDC

Timeline